Regional Instability Causes 3% Drop in Global Gold Jewelry Demand

Emperatriz Maxi Earrings by Carrera y Carrera

The world continues to be more complicated and complex as it also becomes more interdependent. The World Gold Council’s Gold Demand Trends report for the first quarter of 2015 reflects this instability.

Global gold jewelry demand for the first quarter of 2015 declined 3 percent to 600.8 tons, primarily due to large swings in demand in regions throughout the world, but particularly in the world’s two largest gold jewelry markets: China and India.

The largest decline in gold jewelry demand in tons came from China, which fell by 10 percent year-over-year to 213.2 (a 23 ton decline), according to the World Gold Council’s quarterly report, Gold Demand Trends. This was offset by a 22 percent rise in demand in India to 150.8 tons (a 27-ton increase).

“The impact of these two key markets is illustrated by removing them from the global total,” the World Gold Council said in its report. “Jewelry demand excluding China grew 1 percent, year-on-year, while removing India from the total yields a 9 percent decline. The extent of this impact confirms the importance of both markets to global consumer demand.”

The WGC said the sharp increase in demand in India was more of a reflection of unusual weakness in the year-earlier period than any particular strength in the first quarter of 2015. Economic uncertainty and temporary government restrictions on the purchase of the precious metal restricted demand a year ago.

The story with China is somewhat similar in that first quarter 2015 demand was paired against a particularly robust first quarter of 2014. The WGC said the current decline in gold jewelry demand in China is due to three factors:

* Slowing GDP growth;
* Rallying stock markets; and
* Cautious outlook for gold prices.

“Against this background of factors, Chinese New Year—traditionally a popular time for buying and gifting gold jewelry—was relatively restrained,” WGC said.

Well-designed 18k gold is particularly appealing to the younger generation of Chinese, according to the report. In recent years, 24k “Chuk Kam” gold far outweighed the lower-karat segment, accounting for around 90 percent of the market at its peak, WGC said. Eighteen-karat gold now accounts for around 12 percent of the gold jewelry market in tonnage terms.

“Despite the year-on-year decline in Q1, the longer-term rising trend remains firmly intact,” the WGC said.

Jewelry demand in Hong Kong was down 26 percent as it was harder hit by the Chinese government’s anti-corruption campaign than the mainland. The number of tourists visiting from the mainland China jumped during the Chinese New Year holiday in February. However, it was followed by a 10 percent decline in March on tension between Hong Kong and the Chinese government. Measures to limit the number of trips Shenzhen residents can make to Hong Kong were introduced in April, which may further dampen demand in the second quarter, the WGC said.

In the US, gold jewelry demand experienced its third consecutive year-over-year increase in the first quarter as what the WGC describes as a “fragile recovery” continues with household wealth and economic growth. This year the increase in first quarter gold jewelry demand was at 4 percent to 22.4 tons.

Higher carat jewelry remains popular the US. “However, (consumers) were cautious in their approach to spending and the trade views the prospects for the remainder of the year with guarded optimism,” the WGC said.

It adds that “conservative consumer attitudes towards spending and a general lack of innovation in the design and market are potential headwinds.”

The UK market continues to mirror US trends, WGC said, where demand there also grew by 4 percent. However, European markets as a whole were weaker where demand dipped by 2 percent to 12.5 tons “amid stronger euro prices and mixed economic signals.”

In the Middle Eastern markets, domestic unrest, particular in Egypt, has had an impact on gold jewelry demand. In Egypt, demand fell by 31 percent to its lowest level since the second quarter of 2012. The entire region, with the exception of Saudi Arabia (which grew by 5 percent), saw varying year-over-year declines that on average were at 8 percent. Russia reported the largest drop in gold jewelry demand at 40 percent. Turkey saw a 28 percent decline in demand.

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10% Drop in 2014 Global Gold Jewelry Demand

This Indian woman who reportedly wore more than $600,000 worth of jewelry to her wedding may have helped India achieve an 8 percent gain in gold jewelry demand in 2014

Global gold jewelry demand fell 10 percent year-over-year in 2014 to nearly 2,153 tons as strong growth in India, the US and UK couldn’t offset declines in many other large gold markets, the World Gold Council said Thursday.

The WGC, in its quarterly Gold Demand Trends report for the fourth quarter and year-end 2014, says the decline was largely due to extremely strong comparisons to 2013. 

“2014 was always going to be a difficult year for jewelry demand, contending with comparisons to phenomenal strength in 2013,” WGC said in the report. “After a steep drop in Q2, demand for gold jewelry gradually recovered, culminating in the strongest Q4 since 2007.”

The report also notes that the year-end figure is “comfortably above” the 2,053 ton average for the the prior five-years. 

Despite the drop for 2014, year-over-year fourth quarter demand actually grew by 1 percent to 575 tons, again led by a surge in year-end demand in India, the US and the UK, according to the report. 

The report, which also tracks gold demand for technology, investment and central bank net purchases, says jewelry remains the biggest source of demand for gold, accounting for nearly 55 percent of total demand in 2014. 

Declines were reported in much of the world including nearly all of Asia, the Middle East, Russia and in gold manufacturing centers Turkey and Italy. 

The biggest surge in demand for 2014, by far, was in India—one of the two largest gold markets in the world. India had its strongest year for jewelry demand since the WGC began tracking demand in 1995, up 8 percent year-over-year to 662 tons. Wedding- and festival-related purchases drove fourth quarter demand up 19 percent and first-half 2014 up 37 percent, year-over-year. “The second half of the year was the strongest H2 in our data series (from 2000),” the WGC said in its report.

However, it should be noted that the results in India are being compared with extremely weak 2013 results, due to restrictions of gold imports and the decline in value of the local currency in 2013. 

The other largest gold jewelry market in the world, China, saw its 2014 demand fall by 33 percent year over year to 623.5 tons. Despite this, it was still the second best year for jewelry demand in the country since WGC records began. 

In the US, jewelry demand showed year-over-year growth for the seventh consecutive quarter. Its fourth quarter result of 54 tons was a 13 percent year-over-year increase and the strongest fourth quarter since 2009. The 2014 full year demand of 132.4 tons was a 9 percent year-over-year increase and the highest year-end total in five years. 

“That being said, it clearly has to be acknowledged that the market remains far below pre-crisis levels of jewelry demand, which between 2000 and 2006 averaged 360 tons per year,” WGC added.

In the UK, demand increased by 18 percent in 2014 to 27.6 tons. In the fourth quarter sales increased by 14 percent to 15.9 tons, led by the introduction of “Black Friday” sales events for the Christmas holiday season, the WGC said. 

“Lower carat gold jewelry took market share from silver and some interest in heavyweight plain gold chains was reported,” WGC said. 

In most other major gold jewelry markets, demand was down. 

The Asian region was generally weak, with smaller markets “affected by its own individual set of adverse economic circumstances that proved detrimental to jewelry demand,” WGC said in its report. Japanese demand for jewelry slid 8 percent in 2014 to an all-time low of 16.3 tons as the already ailing consumer sentiment “was dealt a blow by the sharp fall in the value of the yen after the central bank unexpectedly expanded its monetary stimulus program in the last quarter.” 

There was a 12 percent decline in demand in Indonesia, the largest of the non-Chinese Asian markets, due high inflation and political upheaval. Newly elected President Widodo announced the removal of gas subsidies in October, “which further choked disposal income.”

Vietnam bucked the trend with a 4 percent gain in 2014.

Other markets are as follows:

* Turkey, demand was down 7 percent to 68.2 tons. 

* Middle East, markets in this region lost a combined total of 8 percent in 2014 to 174.1 tons.

* Russia, gold jewelry demand in Russia dropped sharply in the fourth quarter, leading to a net decline of 4 percent to 70.6 tons for 2014. “The stratospheric rise in the gold price during the fourth quarter (as sanctions and sliding oil prices hit the domestic currency) proved too steep for many consumers.”

WGC says that Jewelry is by far the largest component of above-ground stocks of gold—accounting for almost half of the 177,200 tons of gold estimated to be held by private owners and central banks. 

The total global gold market in 2014 declined 4 percent to 3,923.7 tons, according to the report. The total global supply of gold was flat at 4,278.2 tons. 

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April Marks 10th Month of Retail Sales Growth

Retail sales increased for the tenth straight month in April, further evidence that the retail sector and consumer spending continue to lead the economic recovery, according to the National Retail Federation. However, the amount of sales growth fell short when compared to prior months.

Retail industry sales (which exclude automobiles, gas stations, and restaurants) for April increased 0.2 percent seasonally adjusted from March and 4 percent unadjusted year-over-year, a positive but modest increase compared to previous months’ results, evidence that some consumers are beginning to feel the strain of high food and gas costs, NRF said Thursday.

“With ten consecutive months of growth, retailers are on the front lines of economic recovery, though higher commodity prices are beginning to weigh on some consumers,” said Matthew Shay, NRF president and CEO.

“Positive economic indicators such as increases in job openings and wage growth are certainly helping boost consumers’ confidence, and support spending,” added Jack Kleinhenz, NRF chief economist. “While there are reasons to be optimistic, plenty of other concerns exist which could very easily shift consumers’ spending habits, including decreasing home prices, high unemployment levels and rising costs at the pump.”

April retail sales released Thursday by the U.S. Commerce Department show total retail sales (which include non-general merchandise categories such as autos, gasoline stations and restaurants) increased 0.5 percent seasonally adjusted over March and 7.8 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

The Easter holiday helped boost apparel sales in April with clothing and clothing accessory stores seeing gains of 0.3 percent seasonally adjusted over the previous month and 8.6 percent unadjusted year-over-year, NRF reports.